Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has raised doubts among Russian elite, spy chiefs say

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The Kursk offensive in Ukraine has undermined Vladimir Putin’s war narrative and raised “questions” among the Russian elite about the point of the war, according to two of the world’s top spy chiefs.

CIA Director Bill Burns said Kursk was “a significant tactical achievement” that boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russia’s weaknesses. It has “raised questions . . . among the Russian elite about where this is all going,” he said.

On Saturday he spoke alongside MI6 chief Richard Moore at the Financial Times Weekend Festival in London.

Moore said the Kursk offensive was “a typically bold and daring move by the Ukrainians… to try to change the game” – though he cautioned that it was “too early” to say how long Kiev forces would be able to maintain control of the Russian territory they had captured.

It is the first time the two chiefs have appeared together at a public event in the history of their agencies’ 77-year partnership to share intelligence. It is also the latest move by the US and British spy agencies to come out of the shadows and warn the countries they serve of the growing dangers facing the world.

The spy chiefs spoke of what they called an unprecedented range of threats to the international world order, from Putin’s war in Ukraine and Russia’s sabotage campaign across Europe to the rise of China and rapid technological change.

One area that receives specific attention is the conflict in the Middle East.

Asked whether a deal would be reached to release Israeli hostages in Gaza, Burns, who has been closely involved in the negotiations, said: “This raises the question of whether leaders on both sides are willing to acknowledge that enough is enough and that the time has come to make some difficult choices and some difficult compromises.”

Burns said he couldn’t say the talks would be a success, but “I can’t tell you how close we are.” A potential deal between Israel and Hamas was “90 percent” and “the last 10 percent” was always the hardest part.

A more detailed proposal would come “in the coming days”… (and) my hope is that they (the Israeli and Hamas leaders) will recognize what is at stake here.

Burns also stressed that a two-state solution is critical to securing a lasting peace, as it is “critical to provide a sense of hope for the day after, not just for Gaza, but for all Palestinians and Israelis.”

“It’s a very elusive goal… but all I would say is, show me what is a better alternative,” he said.

Burns, 68, is a career diplomat who now works as a spy, and Moore, 61, is a career intelligence officer who previously worked as a diplomat. Both are graduates of Oxford University and have led parallel professional lives working on Russian, Middle Eastern and Asian affairs.

On Russia, both men said there was no sign that Putin’s grip on power had waned. But it would be wrong to confuse “a firm grip on power with a stable grip,” Moore said, especially since the Kursk invasion had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians.”

Both also said it would be wrong to take Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation lightly, but that the West should not be unduly intimidated. “Putin is a bully and will continue to rattle his guns from time to time,” Burns said.

Asked whether Iran had sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, Burns said it would represent “a dramatic escalation.”

Moore said if Russia were to use Iranian missiles in Ukraine, in addition to the drones Tehran had already supplied, that would be “very clear.”

Recent Russian sabotage operations across Europe have been “reckless”, Moore said, describing Russian intelligence as “going a bit wild”. But “in the UK this is not new”, he added, referring to the attempted assassination of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018.

Asked whether Russian intelligence is conducting similar sabotage operations against the U.S. by supporting illegal migration across the Mexican border, Burns said: “It’s something we’re very focused on. Part of that is a function of the fact that so many Russian agents have been expelled from Europe. So they’re looking for a place to go instead.”

Despite the threat posed by Russia and the risk of conflict in the Middle East, Burns and Moore stressed that the rise of China was their biggest challenge.

Burns said the CIA’s funding for China had tripled in the past three years to 20 percent of the agency’s budget, and that he had traveled to China twice in the past year for talks to “avoid unnecessary misunderstandings.”

Moore described regular contact with his Chinese colleagues as “essential.”

Burns and Moore said their joint appearance aimed in part to underline the strength of the UK-US relationship at a time of unprecedented global risks.

“The international order… is under threat in ways not seen since the Cold War,” the two spy chiefs wrote in an article published in the FT on Saturday. Combating that risk “is the foundation of our special relationship… (on which) we can rely into the next century,” they said.

The most comparable moment to their rare joint appearance on Saturday was a press conference between Ken McCallum, the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency MI5, and his American counterpart, Christopher Wray, the head of the FBI, in London in July 2022.