National Hurricane Center tracks two Atlantic systems

By means of Caitlin Keizer

less than an hour ago

A tropical depression or storm could develop as a result of a disturbance reaching the Caribbean early next week.
That system could bring rain and gusty winds to the eastern Caribbean, but its long-term future is uncertain.
There is a second system closer to Africa that is also being watched for possible tropical development.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes may be developing. One of them could develop into a tropical depression or storm as it moves toward the Caribbean early next week.

Where the potential Caribbean system is now and when it might develop: This system is an area of disturbed weather, a so-called tropical wave, located about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The NHC gives this disturbance an average chance of developing over the next seven days as it moves westward.

If the disturbance becomes better defined with organized showers and thunderstorm activity, it could become a tropical depression or storm in the coming days. That potential formation is likely to occur in the orange shaded area on the map below, according to the latest NHC outlook.

The next name on the list of hurricanes in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Francine.

(The potential areas of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are indicated by the polygons, colored based on the probability of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of the current disturbances.)

This is where this potential Caribbean system is headed: The system will be steered westward in the north by high pressure, reaching the Lesser Antilles early next week. Regardless of how it develops, the Lesser Antilles could experience heavy rain and gusty winds as the system moves through.

However, it is still uncertain how this system will organize and where it will go once it reaches the Caribbean. The strength of the Bermuda high and the resulting upper level pattern will help determine where exactly this system will go next week.

It is far too early to say whether this system poses a threat to the continental United States.

(Further strengthen your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro Experience.)

What you need to know about the Eastern Atlantic system that follows: This system, located just off the west coast of Africa, is an elongated area of low pressure, a so-called tropical wave. Slow development of this system is possible as it moves toward the central tropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week.

It is not an immediate issue for areas on land, but we will continue to monitor it over the coming days, so please check back regularly for more information.

Typical for this time of year: This “Potential Francine” is developing in an area that is very active at this time of year. September is the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, so we expect more tropical development in the coming weeks.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both a bachelor’s and master’s degree in earth and atmospheric sciences, after which she began her career as a digital meteorologist at weather.com.